Local real estate agents are weighing whether the likely election of Zohran Mamdani as mayor of New York City will drive disgruntled city dwellers to move to the suburbs, including Rye.
Mamdani, a Democrat, is positioned to defeat both of his opponents — former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, running as an independent, and Republican Curtis Sliwa.
The 33-year-old frontrunner — a self-identified Democratic Socialist — plans to freeze prices for rent-stabilized city apartments; raise the city’s top corporate tax rate by 4.25 percent, from 7.25 percent to 11.5 percent, the same as in New Jersey; and impose a new 2 percent flat tax on city residents who make $1 million or more annually.
Michèle Flood, a Rye-based Coldwell Banker broker, told The Record she’s “absolutely, positively” had clients reach out to her recently about moving to Westchester specifically because of Mamdani’s policies.
Several other Rye agents told The Record that Westchester has limited housing inventory, and an influx of new buyers could put a strain on the market — causing a spike in asking prices. And while they acknowledge that the outcome of the Big Apple’s mayor’s race could affect housing in the suburbs, they’re not convinced that the so-called “Mamdani effect” will turn out to be dramatic.
Neither the Mamdani nor the Cuomo campaign responded to The Record’s request for comment.
Flood, who has more than four decades of experience under her belt, said that her network of agents in New York City who are “high-end, upscale” sellers are listing more properties in the Big Apple, mostly in Manhattan.
While she admitted that it’s hard to predict what will happen if Mamdani wins, trepidation alone might create movement, she said.
“All we see is the writing on the wall,” she added. “And the writing on the wall is enough to get people in Manhattan putting their own properties on the market at a much faster rate …. There’s a message right there.”
While remaining under the political radar when he launched his campaign a year ago, Mamdani has stunned the city, state, and country with his massive grassroots movement.
Mamdani was first elected to public office in 2020 as a state assemblyman representing neighborhoods in Queens. He has used social media to make a name for himself, and has successfully activated young voters.
Fiona Dogan — a Rye realtor with Julia B. Fee Sotheby’s International — said she had a client last summer who mentioned he wanted to leave the city because of Mamdani. She was surprised, she said, because most clients don’t move because they don’t like the mayor.
Born in Uganda to Muslim Indian parents and raised in New York City, Mamdani has become a popular but polarizing candidate, and not just because of his housing and tax policies. He has been lauded and faulted for his criticism of Israel and the war in Gaza.
“Westchester real estate goes on very healthily year after year and the politics of what’s going on doesn’t seem to affect it,” Dogan said. “Yes, I’ve heard of this ‘Mamdani effect,’ but people have short memories.”
There have really only been two events in Dogan’s career that she said have drastically changed the housing market: the 2008 Lehman Brothers investment bank collapse and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Even so, if a Mamdani administration does affect the market, Dogan said, Westchester likely won’t see any impact for a while.
“It will not be an immediate exodus,” she added. “It will be a year or two in the making.”
Jennifer Reddington, co-founder of the lower Westchester-based Georgio Reddington Team, said she expects some movement after the election, but believes it will likely include those already on the fence about relocating to the suburbs.
“I think it can be a factor, but I don’t know how much we’re going to see that is solely because he took office,” she said.
In her nearly decade of experience, Reddington has seen people leave the city for a variety of reasons — including safety concerns, wanting more space, and wanting to start a family.
But, she said, moments of heightened public concern can sometimes prompt people to leave for the suburbs.
“Already you have a ton of interest, and then you have an added factor — whether it’s Mamdani and something in the government, or whether it’s safety, crime, whatnot — you’re going to see the impact,” Reddington said.
