County Executive George Latimer maintains a substantial fundraising lead over his Democratic primary opponent, incumbent Congressman Jamaal Bowman — and bested Bowman even more dramatically in Rye, Latimer’s hometown, according to Federal Election Commission data from April 15.

Overall, Latimer took in $2.2 million in the first quarter compared to Bowman’s $1.3 million. In Rye, Latimer raised nearly 10 times more than his opponent by bringing in $31,020 from 34 people compared to $3,360 from 14 residents for Bowman. Federal Election Commission figures show that as of March 31, Latimer had a little over $3 million on hand and Bowman about $1.5 million.

In spite of Latimer’s fundraising advantage, the high-profile race is extremely competitive, according to Rye resident Taegan Goddard, founder of Political Wire, an influential political website.

The main reason: It is very difficult to defeat an incumbent in an election to the U.S. House of Representatives, Goddard said. In 2022, for example, 94.5 percent of incumbents in Congress were reelected. Bowman, however, proved in 2020 that it is not impossible to upset an incumbent in the 16th Congressional District by beating 16-term Democratic Congressman Eliot Engel.

“The power of incumbency is important, but it’s also incredibly hard for a challenger to run to the center in a Democratic primary and win,” said Goddard. “It’s the left of the party that is more reliable at coming out to vote in primaries. However, Latimer might be the only person in the county who could pull this off, because of his name recognition across the county.”

Neither of the candidates and no news organizations have released polling data on where the contest stands. One poll of likely Democratic primary voters released April 3 and funded by the pro-Latimer group Democratic Majority for Israel, showed Latimer leading Bowman 52 percent to 35 percent, with 13 percent undecided. Bowman’s campaign condemned that research, calling it biased.

Because the 16th District has a large Democratic majority, the winner of the primary is considered a shoo-in for the general election.

The candidates’ strongly contrasting views about the war in Gaza has focused national attention on Latimer’s primary challenge.

“Bowman has been one of the most outspoken critics of Israel’s military response to Hamas’s deadly terrorist attacks last fall, decrying what he calls the ‘slaughter of civilians’ in Gaza,” The Washington Post reported.

Bowman, who is closely associated with the group of congressional progressives known as “the Squad,” does not mention the Middle East on his campaign website. There he describes himself as a representative who causes “problems for the status quo as well as fighting for working people and the most vulnerable in our communities.”

Before entering politics, Bowman was a middle school principal. Latimer is a long-time local political leader who served as a Rye, Westchester, and New York State legislator before being elected county executive in 2017.

Latimer is more centrist than Bowman, but he declares on his campaign website that he is a “longtime champion for progressive policies and leaders…(who) helped lead the effort to make Westchester, a formerly solid Republican County, into a blue firewall that has withstood multiple red waves in recent years.”

Since declaring his candidacy in December, Latimer has made clear that he strongly supports Israel, and he frequently draws contrasts to Bowman’s positions. On April 18, for example, Latimer made this statement on X (formerly known as Twitter):

“It should not be hard to condemn this weekend’s unprecedented, direct attack on Israel by Iran. And this morning, 404 members of the House voted to do just that by voting on H.Res. 1143. However, my opponent was not one of them. We deserve better.”

The American Israel Public Affairs Committee is the largest contributor to Latimer’s campaign. The latest Federal Election Commission filing showed that AIPAC has directed more than $950,000 to George Latimer for Congress.

“The Israel issue cuts both ways,” said Goddard. “The longer the war goes on, the more support- ers of Israel will likely turn out for Latimer. But the worse the situa- tion gets in Gaza, the more critics of Israel will come out for Bowman. In the end, it could be a wash in the primary.”

Primaries typically attract far fewer voters than general elections, and that has been the case in the 16th Congressional District. In 2022, for example, almost 208,000 voters cast votes in the general election, but only 37,296 turned out for the Democratic primary.

Each campaign’s ability to get out the vote for the June 25 primary will have a major impact on its performance. And there have been other significant developments that will affect the outcome.

New York’s most recent redistricting added Co-Op City in the Bronx, home to many people of color, to the 16th District, a change that is expected to benefit the Bowman campaign.

And the “Westchester Unites: Jewish Voters in Action” campaign persuaded more than 2,000 independent or Republican voters to re-register as Democrats so they could vote in the Democratic primary. Though the group does not endorse candidates, most of those voters are expected to favor Latimer.

Another differentiator between the candidates is endorsements. Both have received the backing of a variety of unions and local politicians in the Westchester and New York City areas.

Bowman’s most prominent endorsement has come from Speaker of the House Hakeem Jeffries, congressman for New York’s Eighth District. Neither of New York’s senators, Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand — who both endorsed Bowman in 2022 — have endorsed a candidate this time. Bowman also has the backing of the prominent progressive leader, Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (NY-14).

Latimer, meanwhile, has received endorsements from many Democratic committees, including those in Eastchester, Rye City, Rye Town, White Plains, Pelham, Mamaroneck, Harrison, Scarsdale, Greenburgh, Yonkers, and Mount Vernon. Bowman lists no local endorsements on his website.

Latimer also has been endorsed by two past holders of this congressional seat, Nita Lowey and Elliott Engel, as well as former New York Governor David Patterson. And Latimer has been endorsed by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, Jewish Democratic Council of America and the Democratic Majority for Israel PAC.

Bowman has the endorsement of Jews for Racial & Economic Justice Action.

There is no doubt that local residents will see a lot of advertising and campaigning by the candidates between now and the June 25 primary.