Latimer Leads Bowman by Large Margin Ahead of Primary: poll

Forty-eight percent of voters support Latimer while 31 percent support Bowman, according to the Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey.

Jamaal Bowman has an uphill climb to reelection, based on the latest poll numbers.
Published June 7, 2024 2:30 PM
2 min read

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The first independent poll in the 16th Congressional District Democratic primary shows Westchester County Executive George Latimer way ahead of incumbent Rep. Jamaal Bowman among likely voters.

Forty-eight percent of voters support Latimer while 31 percent support Bowman, with 21 percent undecided, according to the Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey issued on June 11.

The poll shows that voters differ significantly in their preferences when examined by age and ethnicity. 

“Voters under 40 break for Bowman 44 percent to 35 percent, while voters over 40 break for Latimer,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Democratic primary voters ages 40-59 break for Latimer 53 percent to 31 percent, while voters in their 60s break for Latimer 46 percent to 29 percent, and voters over 70 break for Latimer 53 percent to 22 percent.”

Black voters favor Bowman, 48 percent to 34 percent, while white voters support Latimer, 62 percent to 20 percent. Hispanic voters are split evenly, with 36 percent supporting Bowman and Latimer respectively.

Among likely voters polled, Latimer registered higher on favorability (65 percent to Bowman’s 51 percent) and lower on unfavorability (23 percent to Bowman’s 43 percent).

The top issues for Democratic voters in the district are: the economy (22 percent) and housing affordability (21 percent), followed by threats to democracy (14 percent ), health care (13 percent), crime (12 percent), and immigration (6 percent). 

Forty-five percent of voters align more with Latimer on the Israel-Hamas war, 29 percent align more with Bowman, and 26 percent are unsure. 

Although the poll showing Latimer with a large lead is encouraging to the county executive’s campaign, polls are no guarantee of Election Day results. In particular, polls do not predict which campaign will have the more successful “get out the vote” effort.

“As encouraging as this is,” Latimer stated in a press release, “there’s only one poll that really counts and that starts with Early Voting this Saturday, when voters choose between my proven track record of delivering real progressive results versus the incumbent’s divisiveness, dishonesty, hostility toward his constituents, and votes against Democratic priorities.”

Bowman said in a statement,”(T)his election is about the many versus the money. Our volunteers are talking to tens of thousands of voters across the district every week, and our data shows consistently that through direct conversations, voters see through the lies and are energized to reject AIPAC’s attempt to buy this seat.”

Early voting in the Democratic primary will be available in Rye from Saturday, June 15 to Sunday, June 23 at the Resurrection Church’s Early Childhood Education Center at 88 Milton Road. Election Day voting takes place on June 25 and voters can identify their polling place using this link to the Westchester Board of Elections.

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