Sometimes the Oscars are boring. Not this year. The 2024 Academy Awards are overflowing with storylines and controversies, and a Best Picture race that is far from settled. Before you fill out your ballot, allow me to share this primer on the films and the foibles that will define this year’s ceremony.
Best Supporting Actress
Should Win: Zoe Saldaña, “Emila Perez”
Will Win: Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Perez”
No film has fallen further in its Oscar chances this year than “Emilia Perez.” The hateful social media posts by its star Karla Sofia Gascon have crippled its chances of winning Best Picture, but Saldaña, playing the lawyer for a cartel leader who undergoes gender reassignment surgery, has emerged unscathed. A Hollywood veteran with credits on some of the highest-grossing films of all-time (“Avatar,” “Guardians of the Galaxy”), Saldaña’s performance gives voters a way to honor a film they clearly loved, while steering clear of the controversy.
Best Supporting Actor
Should Win: Guy Pearce, “The Brutalist”
Will Win: Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Call me crazy, but I’m not too keen to give an Oscar to an actor who, if his myriad interviews are any indication, is exactly like the character he’s nominated for playing. Still, all the precursors indicate this is Culkin’s award to lose. I’d rather see Pearce, who has built a fascinating career both in Hollywood and in his native Australia, get long-overdue recognition for playing the sad, pathetic, and villainous industrialist in “The Brutalist.”
Best Original Screenplay
Should Win: “Anora”
Will Win: “Anora”
This category loves its actors-turned-screenwriters (see wins for Emma Thompson and Billy Bob Thornton), so don’t count out Jesse Eisenberg for “A Real Pain.” Typically, this award goes to the coolest, hippest nominee, and “Anora,” which sports crackling dialogue and frequent nudity to go with its solid three-act structure, fits the bill.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Should Win: “Nickel Boys”
Will Win: “Conclave”
RaMell Ross should probably win a bunch of awards for co-writing and directing the bold and inventive “Nickel Boys,” but writing awards often go to the film with the most twists and turns, despite the fact that directors, actors, and editors are owed as much responsibility for pulling them off. This year, that’s “Conclave,” which, despite earning eight nominations, is not expected to win elsewhere. This might be the voters’ only real opportunity to honor a film they clearly admire.
Best Actress
Should Win: Fernando Torres, “I’m Still Here”
Will Win: Demi Moore, “The Substance”
There’s a scenario in which Torres, devastating in the Brazilian historical drama “I’m Still Here,” pulls off an upset on Oscar night. Everyone who has seen the film comes away raving about her performance. But the momentum seems to be in favor of Moore, whose powerful Golden Globes speech cemented her as the frontrunner. Oscar voters loved “The Substance,” a Hollywood-set bit of body horror, and they surely love Moore’s performance, which tackles with rare honesty the existential nightmare of being female and famous.
Best Actor
Should Win: Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave”
Will Win: Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”
The most interesting race of the night comes down to a veteran, middle-aged actor with one Oscar already on his mantle and the biggest young star in the world seeking his first win. Yes, it’s Brody v. Chalamet. While playing cultural icons can often be a path to Oscar glory (see Malek, Rami), the Academy also likes to make its young, male stars to wait before giving them their flowers (see DiCaprio, Leonardo). I think they’ll make Chalamet wait a little longer and instead give Brody his second Best Actor win, after 2001’s “The Pianist.” In a perfect world, Ralph Fiennes would win for anchoring the twisty “Conclave,” and for an under appreciated career.
Best Director
Should Win: Sean Baker, “Anora”
Will Win: Sean Baker, “Anora”
If the voting happened a month ago, this one would have gone to Jacques Audiard for “Emilia Perez,” but the Gascon controversy has ended that narrative. It doesn’t help that advocacy groups for both trans individuals and Mexican-Americans have complained about the film’s portrayal of them. Brady Corbet still has a shot for “The Brutalist,” but he has been engulfed in his own controversy: the film’s use of AI for a brief scene. That leaves the door wide open for Sean Baker, who is widely respected in the industry for his blend of neorealism and Hollywood convention. “Anora” is his most satisfying film to date.
Best Picture
Should Win: “Anora”
Will Win: “Anora”
Just a few years ago, a film like “Anora,” with is realistic portrayals of sex work, wouldn’t have had a chance with the Academy. But the Academy is changing. If last year’s “Poor Things” can earn 11 nominations and win Best Actress, nothing can stop “Anora” from winning Best Picture. The fact that it has stayed relatively controversy-free in this stormy Oscar season also helps its chances. It gives Sean Baker a chance to make Oscars history. If he wins for Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, and Editing, he’ll be the first person ever to garner four Oscars for the same film. We’ll all be tuning in on March 3 to find out.
